It is often difficult to know if things are getting better for recruiters or if the forecast for executive search is bleak. I look to those that survey the industry to offer signs that can predict a direction.

ExecuNet is one of the survey organizations I watch. They engage is recruitment forecasting surveys frequently. Their most recent survey had four positive indicators for the months ahead.

• Recruiter confidence reached 51%, the best in more than 2 years. Recruiters are getting more positive about recruiting. Since recruiters are eternally optimistic, this indicator alone needs someone good news connected to it to make it feel real.
• Executive Job Creation Index moved in a positive direction in January 2014. 30% of companies expected to add executive positions early in the year, up 10% for the prior year.
• Recruiters are forecasting 15% growth in assignments, an increase from 2013 levels.
• ExecuNet also captures metrics on voluntary “quit” rate. This is rate is reported as on the increase, so retention of top talent will be an issue for companies in 2014.

What trends or forecasts do you watch? Is there one that you find most accurate?

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As a recruitment agency, the thought of global recruitment may be daunting or even frightening. So how must your client companies feel? Sometimes they do not have a choice…they must engage in a global search because local talent is not available. You have the luxury to opt in when you see the value or when it fits your plan.

So is 2014 the year you expand your horizons? Will you expand recruitment globally to support a client need or because you see the future of recruiting? Will you move proactively or will you wait until you have lost business and been out-positioned by more nimble competitors?

The case for global recruitment is based on a few developing trends:

First, everyone is doing it. Well, not quite. But in a recent survey sponsored by an ATS provider, nearly 50% of those responding said they were expanding into new territories in 2013. Global access to social media and technology tools like video interviewing are making the stretch into new geographies that much easier.

The second reason for the growth in global recruitment has to do with the war for talent and demographics. It is a fact that some of the world’s strongest economies are not producing the engineering and technical talent necessary to fill the needs projected. In North America and Western Europe, employers will be facing a “double trouble” situation as experienced employees reach retirement age at the same time that the overall need for talent increases. Even today, high level or technically specialized jobs can take months to fill as recruiters search for the “right fit” skill set and talent match. Recruiters are not being engaged to fill easy jobs; they are being called on to do the impossible. More and more employers will open their minds to global recruitment as the ability to fill jobs with local talent evaporates.

There is a war for talent. The news reports are not keeping up with employment reality. By 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected a doubling of technical hiring. The needs projected cannot be filled without accessing talent outside of current borders or alternatively investing deeply in on-the-job training. Since on-the-job training programs have all but stopped, employers will be more willing to navigate the waters of international recruitment to secure the people and talent they will need. The question is, will recruiters lead the way or be chasing the need down from behind?

What is your plan?

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Today’s guest blogger is Liz Longman, the Managing Director of TEAM (The Employment Agents Movement). Liz has been involved in recruitment for over 20 years and previously headed up a region for a generalist agency before joining TEAM some eight years ago.

The TEAM network of agencies with over 400 locations and a combined turnover of approx £1 billion is the largest network of independent recruitment agents in the UK.  TEAM’s main ethos is to assist in the promotion and networking of business and innovations in the recruitment industry across its membership.  TEAM also has a growing number of international affiliates.

TEAM has just completed the round of first-quarter regional recruiter meetings across the UK for its members. Whilst many reported an improving market during 2013, there is now a unanimous show of hands for 2014 being set to be even better. Permanent vacancies are rising at their strongest rate for 4 years which is great news, but demand is far outstripping supply. Nil or sluggish growth on salaries have led to employees staying put and there is increasing evidence of the talent war as many sectors  are reporting difficulty sourcing appropriately skilled candidates.

However, there are signs that employees are gaining confidence in the upturn in the economy and are beginning to “spread their wings.” Those enlightened employers (or perhaps those that have listened to their recruiter!) who are prepared to offer improved remuneration rates are the ones that are currently snapping up the best choice of candidates.

The recruitment market is constantly shifting and good recruiters need to be nimble-footed and ahead of the game. This market calls for recruiters to perhaps spend more time with their clients explaining the dynamics of the recruitment world and how with a professional and well thought out campaign you can still secure the best available candidate for them. The recruiter also needs to acknowledge that the talent war will probably get worse before it gets better. Those quality candidates are the proverbial “hen’s teeth” so when you find them…use them. Even if you don’t have the ideal vacancy, there is a fair chance that another recruiting partner has…so get on that phone and network, network, network.

How are you winning the talent war?

At NPAworldwide we do a twice-annual survey of business conditions for global recruitment agencies. This survey was distributed to the active members of our network, representing more than 400 independent recruiting firms in more than 30 countries. Our member recruiters experienced an improvement in business conditions for their businesses in the last 6 months and are optimistic about the growth potential for the employment markets in the next 6 months. NPAworldwide’s global recruitment firm survey showed that 97% of those surveyed see conditions improving or remaining the same for their businesses over the next 180 days.  That is good news!

Some other results of this survey showed are:

• 53% of these independent recruiting firms reported improved conditions in the last 180 days, 23% indicated no change, and 23% reported worse conditions.
• 72% of our global recruitment agencies reported employment markets performing at or above expectations in the last 90 days.
• 37% of NPAworldwide’s respondents see their market getting more competitive.
• Only three percent of the respondents have a negative outlook for the next 6 months.
• 15% project fees to be below the levels realized in the prior 6 months.

This is good news for NPA members and perhaps the contingent recruiting industry in general. On a worldwide basis, it seems that conditions are improving and growing stronger.

The survey also identified “strong” and “weak” industries/segments of the employment markets. The most active markets identified by the survey of our global recruitment agencies were manufacturing/construction/mining and chemical process jobs. Weaker-performing segments were identified related to positions in the areas of accounting/financial services.

What is your outlook for the next 180 days?