The newest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey has been released for the period of April-June, 2024. Despite lingering economic uncertainty and stubbornly persistent inflation, the global net employment outlook is a solid +22%. This number is derived from the difference between employers planning to increase headcount (41%) and those planning reductions (19%). Thirty-seven percent expect no change, while the remaining 3% are unsure.
While these numbers should provide a measure of confidence, they are also lower expectations on both a quarter-over-quarter (-4%) and year-over-year basis (-2%) on a global basis. Individual countries and sectors, as always, show more nuance.
Of the more than 40 countries participating in the survey, only two (Israel and Romania) have negative net hiring outlooks during this time period. Argentina is nearly flat at a +1% outlook. The strongest outlooks for this quarter are India (+36%) and the United States (+34%). India’s outlook is also the strongest when compared to last year (+6%), while the United States comes in at +4% compared to a year ago.
The technology sector, for the sixth consecutive quarter, has the highest global employment outlook, although a slight decline (-1%) is expected compared to Q1. It is important to keep this in mind because there is still a fair amount of hiring and job availability in spite of recent contractions by specific companies. Other strong sector outlooks including financials and real estate (+29%) and healthcare and life sciences (+26%).
Fewer than half of employers (46%) are on track to meet their goals for hiring more women. The biggest lags are in top-level management (42%) and STEM roles (43%), while administrative roles exceed the 50-percent mark. Twenty-four percent of employers believe gender equality has already been achieved in their organizations, while 38% believe it will be achieved in the next two years. Clearly, there remains work to be done in this area. When it comes to finding and retaining diverse talent, employers cite flexible work policies as the most effective strategy for doing so.
Severe talent shortages remain in multiple sectors, with at least 75% of employers in the following sectors unable to find the skilled talent they need: information technology, consumer goods and services, healthcare and life sciences, industrial and materials, and transportation, logistics and materials. A slower pace of hiring may help tame inflation but will not resolve the demographic realities of low birth rates, aging populations, and high rates of Baby Boomers leaving the workforce.