From the outside, the tech talent market looks like it should be easy right now.

Over the past few years, major layoffs across large and mid-sized tech firms have released tens of thousands of experienced engineers, product managers, designers, and operators into the market. At the same time, hiring budgets have tightened, headcount approvals are more scrutinized, and executives are asking for “leaner, more efficient teams.”

So the assumption is straightforward: more supply should mean easier hiring.

But that assumption is consistently proving wrong.

Across conversations with independent tech recruiters working directly with venture-backed startups, scale-ups, and public tech companies, a different reality is emerging: the more saturated the candidate market becomes, the harder it is to identify, evaluate, and secure the right talent.

We refer to this as the post-layoff candidate surplus paradox.