What Is the Global Employment Outlook for Q1 2026?
Manpower Group has released its comprehensive findings for the first quarter of 2026, offering a roadmap for recruiters and employers alike. The survey, recognized as the most extensive forward-looking analysis of its kind, reveals a seasonally-adjusted Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 24%.
This figure represents a moderate but stable hiring climate. It is calculated by taking the percentage of employers planning to increase headcount (40%) and subtracting those expecting a reduction (16%).
How does this compare to previous data?
- Q4 2025: Up slightly from 23%.
- Q1 2025: Down slightly from 25% year-over-year.
The data indicates a resilient market, but one that requires strategic navigation.
Which Industries Are Driving Job Growth?
Knowing where demand lies is critical for your recruitment strategy. The data points to specific sectors leading the charge locally, regionally, and internationally.
Finance and Insurance Lead the Pack
Employers in the finance and insurance sector report the strongest confidence, boasting a Net Employment Outlook of +30%. If you operate in this vertical, expect competition for talent to remain fierce.
Public Sector and Health Care Rebound
Perhaps the most notable shift is in the public sector, health, and social services. This group shows the strongest quarter-over-quarter improvement, gaining 5 points to reach an outlook of 20%. Robust hiring confidence in these areas suggests a renewal of budgets or increased demand for services.
Other Sector Movements
- Construction & Real Estate: Up 4 points from Q4.
- Manufacturing: Plus 3 points to 25%.
- Hospitality: Dropped 5 points to 24%.
- Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services: Dropped 5 points to 27%.
How Does Company Size Impact Hiring Intentions?
Are large corporations or small businesses driving the current demand? The findings for Q1 2026 show a distinct divergence based on employer size.
- Mid-Market Strength (250-999 employees): This segment reports the strongest NEO at +28%.
- Small Business Surge (<10 employees): This group reports the most improved outlook, jumping 9 points to 21%.
- Large Enterprise Slowdown (>1,000 employees): Conversely, the largest employers report the most sluggish conditions, citing economic challenges as the primary reason for caution.
Which Regions Have the Strongest Employment Outlook?
Geography plays a massive role in hiring confidence. Where should you focus your international recruitment efforts?
AsiaPacific
This is currently the strongest region globally with a 30% NEO.
- India: Buoying the region with a massive 54% NEO, the strongest in AsiaPacific.
- Regional Trend: The outlook has improved 11% year-over-year.
The Americas
The region reports a Net Employment Outlook of 26%. While this is a 4% increase from the previous quarter, it reflects a 10% decrease year-over-year.
- Brazil: A standout performer. Brazil’s outlook surged 17 points from Q4 and 30 points from a year ago, landing at 54%—leading all countries globally.
- United States: Employers in the US report a decrease of 7 points compared to 2025.
Europe and the Middle East
This region is showing signs of recovery and stability.
- Quarterly Growth: Reflects a quarter-by-quarter improvement of 11%.
- Yearly Comparison: The 20% NEO remains unchanged from last year.
Summary of Key Findings
- Global NEO: +24% (40% hiring, 16% reducing).
- Top Country: Brazil (+54%).
- Top Sector: Finance and Insurance (+30%).
- Most Improved Size: Micro-businesses (<10 employees).
Conclusion
The Q1 2026 employment outlook paints a picture of specific opportunities amidst broader economic caution. With finance and mid-sized companies surging, and regions like Brazil and India posting aggressive growth numbers, the opportunities are there for those who know where to look.
Is your recruitment network positioned to capitalize on these specific high-growth verticals? By understanding these trends locally, regionally, and internationally, you can better advise clients and candidates. Align your resources with these growing sectors to ensure a successful start to 2026.