Q4 Employment Outlook Shrinks

Manpower Group has released its quarterly employment outlook survey for the upcoming quarter (Oct-Dec 2025). While the net global outlook remains positive (+23%), it has declined slightly when compared to both the previous quarter and the previous year. This is a comprehensive global survey, with more than 40,000 employers in 40 different countries participating.

Globally, the highest demand for workers is in the technology and finance/real estate sectors. A plurality of employers expecting to add headcount (39%) indicate that business expansion is the prime reason. Nearly one-fourth of employers indicated that their hiring plans are fueled by a need to keep up with technology advances. This is especially true in Asia, where India leads the way with 36% of employers indicating technology-fueled growth. On the opposite end of the spectrum, this was cited by much smaller numbers of employers in Portugal (16%), Chile (15%), and Romania (14%).

For employers who plan to decrease headcount in this quarter, uncertainty is the top reason for doing so, cited by one-third of those employers. Other reasons include market shifts, restructuring/downsizing, and automation.

Other notable highlights:

• The strongest hiring plans are in the UAE (+45%), which just joined the survey in Q3, so there is no historical data for comparison and nothing to seasonally adjust. After the UAE are India (+40%) and Brazil +36%).
• The weakest employment outlook is in Argentina (+5%), preceded by Hong Kong (+6%) and Hungary (+8%).
• Chile has the most improved year-over-year change at +13 points, while the UK has the largest slide at -17 points from a year ago.
• 29% of companies with 250-999 employees plan to increase headcount during this quarter; that is the highest number among all employers.
• US employers report a +28% net employment outlook, while in Canada that number is +22%.
• Nearly half of employers (46%) report difficulty attracting qualified candidates, while two-thirds feel their hiring process is effective at selecting the right people for the right roles.
• 29% of employers report difficulty filling complex technical roles.
• The net employment outlook for consumer goods has dropped 20 points since last year, aligning with the decline in consumer confidence, particularly in the US.

Hiring appears to be slowing down in most sectors, locations, and industry verticals globally. Disruptions in supply chains and forecasting due to tariffs and other economic policy are likely to create confusion and uncertainty for some time into the future. Some areas are likely to see improved conditions as manufacturing shifts to new locations, while other areas will struggle with increased costs and difficulty sourcing raw materials.