Manpower Group has released its Q4 2026 Employment Outlook Survey; results show a +2 points improvement over the previous quarter and a +6 points gain from last year, with a positive net global hiring outlook of +29%. How this breaks down: 43% of survey respondents plan to increase payroll through the end of the year, while 14% expect decreases. Nearly 40,000 employers from across 42 countries participate in this quarterly survey, with data points broken down both by geographic as well as nine market sectors: Construction & Real Estate; Finance & Insurance; Hospitality; Information; Manufacturing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Sector, Health & Social Services; and Trade & Logistics.
Sector Highlights:
- The strongest sectors are Construction & Real Estate and Finance & Insurance, both at +36%. Construction & Real Estate is the most improved sector on a year-over-year basis.
- The Information sector reports a +35% net employment outlook for the upcoming quarter.
- The Trade & Logistics sector reports a +31% NEO; this is a 10-point improvement over last year; the second-strongest sector gains in this survey.
Geographic Highlights:
- India reports the strongest outlook for Q4 at +54% while Panama has the most-improve YoY outlook at +26%.
- Market conditions remain difficult in Japan (-6%), Singapore (-7%), and Slovakia (-10%).
- The Americas region is +11% since last year, with the strongest reports coming from Brazil, Panama, and Mexico. The largest gains are expected in the Information sector, from mid-size employers (250-999 employees).
- The EMEA region forecasts a strong +22% improvement since Q4 2025. Hiring activity is robust in the Construction & Real Estate sector, again from mid-size employers. The UAE leads the region in optimism, followed by Sweden and Israel.
- 40% of large employers in Asia Pacific (more than 5,000 employees) expect to increase hiring in the upcoming quarter, with Information being the strongest sector at +47%. Employers in India, China, and Vietnam are reporting the strongest outlooks in the region.
Workforce Highlights:
- Nearly two-thirds of hiring plans are coming from changing roles and skills, with the remaining third are backfilling positions.
- Employers across every sector are increasing entry-level/early career hires compared to 2025, even while reporting that early-career candidates lack the necessary skills for their open roles, and employers are under pressure to hire candidates that can make immediate contributions. Both of these factors were cited more frequently than AI as reasons to decrease entry-level hiring.
- Speaking of AI, the majority of employers are not improving their time-to-fill rates even with the use of AI. Pain points include lack of candidates with necessary skills, lack of candidates in the local market in general, fewer employee referrals, and inefficient hiring processes.
The numbers tell a confident story. With a +29% net employment outlook heading into Q4 2026, the global hiring outlook is trending up across the board. Still, the data points to real challenges your firm can help clients solve: entry-level hiring is rising even as employers struggle to find early-career candidates with the right skills, and AI alone isn’t moving the needle on time-to-fill. That gap between demand and ready talent is exactly where a well-connected recruiter adds value. The firms that act on the data now will be the ones winning the mandates tomorrow.