Q1 Hiring Outlook Remains Unchanged

Manpower Group has released its quarterly Employment Outlook Survey for Q1 2025. The net hiring outlook, which is the difference between employers planning to hire in the upcoming quarter (41%) and employers planning to cut headcount (16%), is 25%. This is the same as the previous quarter and slight decline (-1%) compared to the same quarter last year. The stability is a welcome sign and many members of our recruitment network are already seeing signs of more robust activity moving into the new year.

The highest-demand sectors remain information technology and finance/real estate. Recruiters in the tech space have endured a rocky road over the past year with fewer available jobs, so the current 37% net employment outlook is a welcome 2 points higher than last year. Finance/real estate is up one percentage point to 33% from last quarter, which is equal to last year. Election cycle jitters and another cut to the US prime interest rate should lead to increased stability and a more positive hiring outlook next year. However, inflation remains persistent and further interest rate cuts are likely to be on a slower pace which could suppress demand.

On a global basis, India leads with the highest NEO at 40%, while Argentina has the lowest at -1%. Employers in the Americas are also expecting measured progress with a 34% positive hiring outlook in the United States followed by Mexico at 32% and Costa Rica at 31%, although all three are slightly lower than last year. Year-over-year, the biggest declines in the hiring outlook are Hong Kong (-23%), Puerto Rico (-21%), and Australia (-17%).

Looking at employer size, the hiring outlook is positive among all categories. The most robust activity is anticipated among employers with 250-999 employees (31%) and the weakest is employers with 10 or less (12%).

There are three primary geographic sectors in the survey: EMEA, AsiaPac, and the Americas. Hiring in Europe continues to be the weakest of the three major geographies; however, South Africa leads the way with an NEO of 31%. And the finance/real estate sector, which is strong globally, is buoyed by a 53% hiring outlook in Belgium.

The transport, logistics, and automotive sector is especially strong in Singapore, as 67% of employers plan to add headcount in the upcoming quarter. Also in AsiaPac, 53% of employers in China plan to hire within the finance/real estate sector (tied with employers in Belgium).

It continues to be true that employers of all sizes, in multiple sectors and geographies, continue to struggle to find talent. Demographic challenges are very real and are unlikely to subside anytime soon. Many employers simply do not have access to the candidates they want to hire and will continue to rely on the expertise of skilled, well-connected recruiters to fill their vacancies.