It’s no secret that hiring has slowed recently and there are many factors contributing to that. One of those things, I believe, is the cyclical nature of the US presidential election which seems to always involve a certain amount of “wait-and-see” breath-holding by employers of all sorts. Some things are likely to change (for better or worse), some things will remain, and as always, the best recruiters adapt to the needs of the market.
Things that could change:
Number of job openings—There is at least cautious optimism that hiring will increase, with some of our members already reporting a loosening of employer purse-strings. Most recruiters I know will view an increase in hiring as a positive development.
Candidate availability—Policies may change candidate availability. Some candidates have put job searches on hold until there is more certainty about the future, some are under forced mandates to return to an office environment on a fulltime basis, and others who not able to relocate due to continued pressure in housing.
Visas / immigration—I think it is likely that we will see a reduction in H1-B visa permits from the incoming administration. This is likely to be a hardship in certain sectors (technology being a prime example). At the same time, these roles will still need to be filled, so how will smart recruiters adapt to this reality?
Taxes—Tax changes, including tariffs, are likely to be a mixed bag that could have positive results for businesses and negative results for consumers (or vice versa).
Things that won’t change:
Demographics still favor a candidate-short market—The US demographic reality is a continued shortage of workers for the forseeable future. The current birth rate is too low to replace existing workers. Labor force participation is below historical numbers even though unemployment is low overall. About 1/3 of working-age people in the US are not working, for a variety of reasons. There is a mismatch between jobs requiring college degrees and available workers with those degrees. These candidates are not going to magically appear anytime soon, especially if there is a reduction in immigrant labor.
Employers still need recruiters—Employers will still struggle to find the qualified talent they are seeking. Their networks aren’t deep enough, it’s difficult to engage people who are employed with direct competitors, and many have (once again) reduced or eliminated their in-house recruitment departments. They will continue to rely on the support and skills of professional recruiters to fill open roles and/or upgrade individual performers.
There’s always an opportunity to make money—There is always someone making money, somewhere. Smart recruiters adapt to their environments by branching out into new sectors and new geographies. They figure out how to offer new services or upsell chunks of the recruitment process. Recruitment networks can be an effective tool for generating new business. We’ll figure this out, and then do it again in another four years.