Manpower Group recently released the results of its Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter. The survey was administered during the peak of the global coronavirus pandemic. There has been a rapid change in global hiring conditions, and the survey data reflects these extraordinary conditions. Manpower surveyed more than 30,000 employers in 43 countries. All participants were asked to answer “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2020 as compared to the current quarter?”
Payroll reductions are expected in 35 of the 43 countries surveyed. Seven countries expect headcount growth, while one expects a flat landscape. Every country in the survey expressed a weaker hiring sentiment on a year-over-year basis. Survey highlights follow below.
- The United States leads the region with the strongest hiring plans – true for the past 11 consecutive quarters. Hiring is anticipated during the upcoming quarter, although at a much slower pace than previous quarters. Nine of 12 sectors plan to increase payroll, with the largest increases coming in education and healthcare.
- Canadian employers report their weakest outlook since 1978. However, modest gains are expected in the services and non-durable manufacturing sectors.
- Hiring in Brazil is expected to be as low as the 2016 recession levels. Slight gains in finance, insurance & real estate are not expected to outpace the slumps in transportation & utilities and wholesale & retail trade.
- Payroll growth is expected in all seven sectors in Japan during the upcoming quarter. While gains are expected to be slower than both the prior quarter and prior year, several sectors look quite strong. This includes transportation & utilities, services, and finance, insurance & real estate.
- Indian employers expect the weakest labor market in 15 years BUT are still expecting growth in all seven industry sectors.
- Australia reports especially sluggish employment activity in wholesale & retail trade as well as finance, insurance & real estate.
- Only two of the 26 countries surveyed – Croatia and Germany – expect to increase headcount during the third quarter.
- Across the region, sharp declines in the restaurants & hotels sector are reported.
- Payroll reductions are expected in both Spain and Poland in every industry sector.
The full PDF is worth reading to glean more nuance in each locality. Bottom line: while it’s definitely not sunshine and roses, it’s not all doom and gloom either. On a global basis, employers are cautiously optimistic about a return to pre-pandemic levels. More than half expect the recovery to occur by April 2021. Well-connected recruiters will be in the best position to take advantages of the pockets of hiring activity around the world.