Despite global economic uncertainty and continued recession woes, the latest Employment Outlook Survey from Manpower Group indicates that 42 percent of employers anticipate increased hiring this quarter. With 16 percent of employers anticipate shrinking payroll, that leads to a net employment outlook of +26 percent. This is a decrease of four percent from Q4, but a YOY increase of three percent. Thirty-nine percent of employers don’t anticipate any changes to current staffing levels.
Countries reporting the strongest employment outlook are India and Netherlands (+37 percent each), followed by Costa Rica and the United States (+35 percent each). The weakest outlook, at just +2 percent, is Argentina, followed by Czech Republic (+8 percent).
Year-over-year results are significantly improved in ten of the forty-one countries participating in the survey, all of which have double-digit improvements compared to a year ago: Hungary +20%, Poland +18%, Netherlands +17%, Portugal +16%, Spain +16%, Germany +11%, Slovakia +11%, and Belgium +10%. Four countries are expecting double-digit decreases compared to a year ago: Argentina (-10%), Peru (-10%), Israel (-11%), and Panama (-18%).
Globally, employers in the information technology (+36%) have the strongest hiring plans for the fifth consecutive quarter. However, Q1 hiring activity is expected to slow down by -3 percent compared to the last quarter. This sentiment matches recent layoffs and other hiring contractions in the technology sector. The next strongest sectors are Financials and Real Estate (+34%) and Communication Services (+31%).
Talent shortages continue to negatively impact employers in all geographies and employment sectors. In 2024, 75% of employers reporting that they are struggling to find employees, down slightly from 77% in 2023. This is a marked increase since 2018 (45%). The talent shortage is worst in Japan, with 85% of employers reporting difficulty finding candidates. Japan also has the oldest population in the world, meaning the pool of available working-age citizens is a significant portion of the talent shortage.
AI is also impacting employers in ways not previously seen. The top workforce challenge cited by employers is the need to train workers how to leverage AI. The talent shortage is the next-highest workforce challenge, and the third is also related to AI: defining which roles can take advantage of this capability. In terms of hard skills, employers estimate that most technical skills will need a significant upgrade in order to accommodate more sustainable practices.
Well-connected recruiters with strong candidate networks will continue to be integral to companies’ successful hiring outcomes.