Q4 hiring activity is expected to remain steady around the world according to the results of the newest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. There are no countries in the survey with a negative net outlook over the next three months. Globally, survey respondents expect a net hiring out look of +30%, which is an increase of 1% from a year ago and 2% from last quarter. The net hiring outlook is the difference between anticipated hiring increases (44%) and anticipated hiring decreases (14%).
There is no change in the number of employers reporting talent scarcity (77%) which remains at a 17-year high. Employers are equally likely to hire contract workers as direct-hire employees. Eight-seven percent plan to maintain or increase their use of gig workers. Employers are also increasingly likely to consider non-traditional candidates to alleviate the worker shortage. That includes:
- Older workers, or those seeking to make a career change
- People with employment gaps due to caretaking
- People with non-linear career paths
- Those who have been unemployed for a long time
- Workers who don’t meet all the desired technical or soft skills
- Individuals from underrepresented or marginalized communities, those with chronic illnesses or disabilities, and those with minor criminal infractions
Notable details about Q4 hiring activity include:
- Costa Rica leads the survey for this quarter at +41%, followed by Brazil and Switzerland, both at +38%
- Argentina, Czech Republic and Japan have the lowest net hiring outlooks, all coming in at +11%
- Greece is reporting the largest year-over-year improvement at +21%
- On a regional basis, employers in North America have the strongest hiring sentiment (+35%)
- Employers of all sizes report positive hiring outlooks of at least +25%
- The technology sector remains the strongest at +39% in spite of both recent contractions and a 5% decline compared to last year
It appears that Q4 hiring activity remains a mixed bag. While headcount increases are anticipated in virtually all countries and sectors, the pace is slower than it has been in recent quarters. Labor unrest and economic uncertainty remain persistent. Salaries continue to be high, reflecting the scarcity of candidates. Inflation is trending down, but housing costs and interest rates remain high. These factors, often contradictory, make it difficult to accurately predict job market trends.