While many global economists continue to have concerns about an economic recession, nearly half (45%) of global employers intend to hire more workers in the coming quarter. Another third expect headcount to remain the same. Employer hiring activity has contracted slightly (-3%) from the previous quarter, but is up 6% compared to last year. These numbers are from the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.
Employer hiring is expected to be moderate during the last quarter of 2022. This activity will be buoyed by strong hiring outlooks in both Brazil (+55%) and India (+54%). Economic growth is expected to be both uncertain and uneven, due to factors such as the continuing conflict in Ukraine, stubborn inflation, fear of recession, and the rise in housing costs. Despite this uncertainty, hiring expectations are stronger compared to last year in 23 of the 41 countries participating in the survey (59%), and 40% of participating countries (16%) compared to last quarter. Other take-aways from the quarterly survey include:
- AsiaPac looks poised to have the strongest employment growth in the upcoming quarter, led by India (+54%) and China (+46%). This is the only region in the MEOS survey where employer hiring plans increase on both a quarterly as well as an annual comparison.
- Employers across Europe report less confidence in hiring intentions; those closest to Ukraine are being extremely cautions about hiring activity.
- All 11 countries in the Americas anticipate increased headcount in Q4; Argentina has the weakest plans at +9%.
- Nearly half of employers in the manufacturing sector plan to add employees in the upcoming quarter; however, a full three-quarters (76%) reporting difficult in finding people with the right hard and soft skills needed for their open roles.
- The continued talent shortage is impacting all of the leading occupational sectors. At least 70% of employers in all of the top occupational sectors cannot find enough employees with the needed skills. These sectors include manufacturing, banking & finance, technology, construction, education/health/social work/government, restaurants and hotels, and wholesale and retail trade.
- Workplace participation is stagnating in certain markets and sectors
While the economic outlook is less clear now than earlier in 2022, the labor market remains strong. Many sectors continue to improve in optimism compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter. There are plenty of opportunities for skilled recruiters, particularly those who work on a split-fee basis, which can help even out these kinds of cyclical fluctuations.